As of December 2021, the number of new energy vehicle battery swap stations in my country has been close to 1,200, a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. Although the construction of battery swap stations has begun to take shape, compared with the charging mode, the battery swap mode is relatively small. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the support of national policies, the battery swap industry is expected to achieve leapfrog growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. It is expected that by 2025, the sales volume of battery-swap passenger cars will exceed 2.8 million units, and the sales volume of battery-swap commercial vehicles will be 500,000 units. The demand for supporting battery swap stations will be approximately 28,000, corresponding to a market size of 76.5 billion. The demand for supporting batteries will be approximately 55GWh, corresponding to a market size of 38.8 billion. It corresponds to electricity revenue of 216.8 billion, and the total scale of the industry chain is approximately 300 billion.
Figure | Source: Founder Securities Research Institute calculations
The electric vehicle battery swapping model refers to the centralized storage, centralized charging, and unified distribution of a large number of batteries through centralized charging stations, and battery replacement services for electric vehicles in the battery distribution station or the integration of battery charging, logistics deployment, and battery swapping services. One body. The essence of the battery swap model is to tap the full life cycle value of power batteries and realize the redistribution of interests between enterprises and consumers.
Currently, there are two main types of battery swapping for passenger cars on the market: integrated chassis battery swapping and modular box-based battery swapping. The main representatives of chassis power swapping are BAIC New Energy, NIO, Geely, Dongfeng and other mainstream car companies. The representatives of module sub-box power swapping are Lifan and Hangzhou Bertan. Commercial vehicles such as heavy-duty trucks and mining trucks are divided into three types: top-mounted battery replacement, overall one-sided, and overall two-sided. The ceiling-mounted battery swap uses steel cables to hoist the battery box and cooperates with other mechanism positioning to be compatible with specific parking errors. Therefore, ceiling-mounted power swapping technology has a simple structure, low cost, and good feasibility. It is the earliest commercialized method and accounts for the largest market share. At present, the mainstream manufacturers of ceiling-mounted equipment are Bozhon Seiko and Shanghai Jiuxing.
Figure | Source: West China Securities Research Institute calculations
(1) The energy replenishment efficiency is high, the energy replenishment time is greatly shortened, effectively alleviating users' mileage anxiety and increasing driver income. The battery swap mode is a way to quickly replace the power battery of a new energy vehicle through mechanical means to replenish energy. The process does not take more than 5 minutes. Although most public charging piles have adopted the fast charging mode, charging time of more than half an hour will also cause users to queue up for charging, and the actual charging time may be longer. In addition, fast charging usually uses a larger current, which will also cause a certain loss of battery life. Although slow charging reduces battery loss, the charging time of 6-8 hours is more suitable for private car users, and has a greater disadvantage for profit-making models such as operating vehicles and commercial vehicles.
(2) The battery is uniformly monitored and managed by the battery swap station operator to increase the safety factor. In the battery swap mode, the battery is managed uniformly by the operator and charged uniformly with a stable current at a suitable temperature, which can effectively improve the battery safety factor. In addition, the battery swap station has a variety of monitoring systems, including visual, smoke, temperature and BMS (battery management system) mechanisms, which can safely monitor all batteries in the station and eliminate batteries with safety hazards as soon as possible.
(3) The "vehicle and electricity separation" mode can reduce the user's initial car purchase cost. The "vehicle and battery separation" model derived from the battery swap industry can effectively lower the threshold for users to purchase a car for the first time. The separation of vehicle and electricity means that on the basis of battery exchange, after the customer purchases the entire vehicle, the battery management company repurchases the property rights of the battery, and the customer obtains the right to use the battery by leasing, realizing the separation of the value of vehicle electricity, which is a way to reduce the initial cost of purchasing a car for customers. Way.
Figure | Source: Founder Securities Research Institute calculations
However, the shortcomings of the battery swap model cannot be ignored. The initial investment cost of a battery swap station is high. In addition to the costs of land, manpower, and purchase of battery swap equipment, the construction of a battery swap station also requires huge battery storage costs, battery charging, and electricity consumption costs. . At the same time, compared with the charging mode, the later operating cost of the battery swap station is higher. The charging station can be almost unattended, and car owners can operate the charging pile for charging by themselves, and its operating cost is relatively low. At present, the operation and maintenance of battery swap equipment in battery swap stations, as well as the unified charging, storage and deployment of power batteries require a certain number of staff. Therefore, the later operating costs of battery swap stations are higher than those of charging stations. In addition, judging from the standard construction progress of the entire power swap industry, the standards lag behind industry practice. The power swap industry has higher requirements for standards. An important prerequisite for the commercialization of power swaps is the establishment of unified standards. It is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the specifications and standards of battery packs, the most critical standard in the battery swap industry and the most urgently needed by battery swap companies, because OEMs will not give up the right to define battery packs. Different car companies have different battery pack sizes, weights, locking mechanisms, and interface definitions, which makes it difficult for battery swap stations to be compatible with models of different car companies. The location selection of the battery swap station is also a difficult problem, and many factors such as convenience, safety, and cost must be considered. Land is at a premium in big cities where electric vehicles are concentrated. Even if you can accept the price, you may not be able to find a suitable place in the core area.
In this regard, at the recent two sessions, Li Shufu gave several suggestions, which can serve as important inspirations for future industry improvements.
The first point: Accelerate the clarification of relevant regulations on the construction of power swap stations, high and low voltage box-type substations, land and construction approvals, and incorporate them into the national market management standard system.
Second point: It is recommended that the government open up resource access and support for public parking lots, effectively and rationally optimize the allocation of land resources; optimize the approval process for high-voltage new installation (capacity increase) of power replacement projects, implement compressed installation time limits, and liberalize the application for multiple households in one site. , speed up the construction cycle.
The third point: Accelerate the standardization and universalization of battery replacement modes. Promote the standardization of power swap interface software and hardware protocols, preset 2-3 technologically advanced interface forms to formulate recommended standards; standardize the structure, form, and compatibility of power swap stations so that technologically advanced power swap stations are recommended first; Promote the standardization of battery swapping packs so that swapping battery packs can truly be interoperable among different car companies, different battery swapping stations, and different users.
Promote the construction of a good environment conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the battery swap station facility industry, promote industrial technological innovation, cross-border collaboration, and industrial chain optimization, promote quality and efficiency improvement and high-quality development, and build a world-class battery swap station guarantee system to fully support New energy vehicles are widely used in my country.
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